FAQ and methodology
How the score works
No black box. Here is exactly what goes into the number, where the data comes from, and, just as important, what it cannot do.
What is the Onchain Intelligence score?
A single 0 to 100 reading of Bitcoin or Ethereum's onchain and derivatives conditions. 60 or above leans bullish, 40 or below bearish, around 50 neutral. It is the weighted blend of 13 metrics, re expressed as deviations from their own recent history, then standardized so the score uses the full range.
Which metrics go into it?
Exchange netflow, netflow to reserve ratio, exchange reserve, MVRV, realized cap HODL momentum, SOPR (proxy), active addresses, hashrate, miner pressure (MPI proxy), TVL, stablecoin supply, perp funding rate and open interest. Contrarian metrics such as MVRV, funding and exchange inflow push the score down when they run hot, which is mean reversion by design.
What data does it use?
Aggregated from public onchain data (MVRV, exchange flows, reserves, active addresses, hashrate, issuance), derivatives data (perp funding and open interest) and DeFi data (TVL and stablecoin supply). Everything is real market data. Only SOPR and Miner Pressure carry a
proxy label because their true versions need paid UTXO level data.What is a z score and why use it?
A z score says how many standard deviations a metric sits from its own 90 day baseline. “Exchange outflow is 2 sigma below normal” is a real signal, while “down 1.5 percent today” is just noise. It makes very different metrics such as hashrate, funding and TVL comparable on one scale.
Does onchain data actually predict the next 7 to 30 days?
Only weakly, and the tool is honest about it. Across roughly six years of non overlapping windows, higher score ranges did post higher average forward returns, but the edge is modest. Shorter horizons of 7 to 14 days tend to be cleaner than 30. Bottom line, it is a monitored signal, not a trade trigger.
How is the backtest measured?
Using non overlapping windows, exactly how the tool is meant to be used: enter at a window start, hold for the horizon, then re evaluate. That gives independent samples (not inflated overlapping daily readings). The What Happened Next panel groups those windows by score range and shows the average forward return and win rate of each, and highlights the range your live current call falls in, fixed at its entry and tracked to now.
Why does the score sometimes move opposite to price?
By design. Valuation and leverage metrics such as MVRV, funding and exchange inflows are contrarian. When price pumps, they heat up and pull the score down, flagging over extension. A rising score into a falling price is a possible bullish divergence, which the tool surfaces as a signal chip.
How often does it update, and does it store my data?
It refreshes on load and every few minutes. It stores nothing about you on a server. Score snapshots live only in your browser to draw your session history, and data responses are briefly cached in the browser. No accounts, no tracking.
Is this financial advice?
No. It is an educational research tool. It does not tell you to buy or sell, and it can be wrong. Do your own research and manage risk.