Articles
Plain writing on how to read onchain data honestly. A new piece most weeks. No hype, and never financial advice.
Hashrate, miners and why lagging data still matters
Hashrate and miner revenue react slowly. That makes them poor triggers and surprisingly good context. Here is the distinction.
Non overlapping windows: backtesting without fooling yourself
Most crypto backtests look amazing because they cheat. Here is the specific trick they use, and how the honest version works.
The honest limits of onchain analysis
A tool is only as trustworthy as it is honest about what it cannot do. Here is where onchain analysis, including this one, falls short.
When price and onchain disagree: reading divergence
The most interesting moments are when the chart says one thing and the flows say another. That gap has a name, and sometimes an edge.
How to read the Onchain score in two minutes
A quick, practical walkthrough of the dashboard: what the gauge means, what to trust, and what to ignore.
Stablecoins as dry powder: does it hold up?
The theory says growing stablecoin supply is money waiting to buy. It is a decent idea with real caveats. Here is how I actually weigh it.
Funding rate is a crowd meter, not a crystal ball
Perp funding tells you what leveraged traders are feeling. That is useful, mostly as a warning when everyone leans the same way.
Why I score everything with z scores
Raw onchain numbers are impossible to compare. A z score turns every metric into the same language: how unusual is this, right now?
Whale accumulation is mostly a story about exchange reserves
Everyone talks about whales buying. Most of what we can actually measure for free is the level of coins sitting on exchanges. Here is the honest version.
MVRV without the jargon
MVRV is the closest thing onchain analysis has to a valuation gauge. Here is what it measures and how to read it without the mysticism.
What exchange netflow actually tells you
Exchange netflow is the first number most people quote and the first one they get wrong. Here is how I read it, and where it lies.